Angola is forecasting faster growth and a stronger contribution from the non-oil economy in its 2027 budget. But with debt repayments absorbing a large share of public spending, how much room does the government really have to invest — particularly in an election year?
For this week's Angola Briefing, Zitamar editor-at-large Fernando Lima was joined by economist Francisco Paulo and political risk analyst Marisa Lourenço. They examined the budget's assumptions and the risks to its implementation, alongside the future ownership of BFA, plans to connect the Lobito and Tazara railways, and Angola's continued presence on the FATF grey list.
LEADER | Angola's 2027 budget: can non-oil growth carry the weight?
The Angolan government's proposed 2027 budget totals Kz37.34 trillion and anticipates 5.5% economic growth, largely driven by a 7.19% expansion outside the oil sector. The forecasts are encouraging, but the discussion on this week's Angola Briefing exposed two problems: the scale of the revenue increase being assumed, and the limited spending room left after debt repayments.
Economist Francisco Paulo regarded the forecast for non-oil revenue as excessively optimistic. The budget projects that receipts from activities outside oil will rise sharply enough to overtake oil tax revenue. An analysis by Maka Angola puts the anticipated increase in non-oil tax receipts at approximately 23%, against real non-oil economic growth of just over 7%. Those figures are not directly comparable — one is nominal revenue, the other real output — but the difference underlines how much depends on inflation, tax collection and the expansion of formal economic activity.
