Overview:
State forces operations in Macomia district’s Catupa forest area have put Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) under pressure, prompting groups of fighters to move south and west. Clashes in the area since late June account for over one-third of all such clashes in Catupa since May 2025.
To the south, they threaten communities across Quissanga, Meluco, Ancuabe, and Chiúre districts, and Nampula province, with the threat of attacks on the southern section of the N380 and N1 highways likely to restrict commercial, humanitarian, and civilian traffic.
The move west to Montepuez will disrupt small-scale and informal mining projects west of the R698 road linking Montepuez to Mueda. Traffic on the R698 remains at risk of attack, following the hijacking of three vehicles on 26 July. As the group has moved northward to Niassa, civilian communities in Mecula district are at risk of attack and displacement.
This diffusion of ISM activities will strain the Defense Armed Forces of Mozambique (FADM) considerably, creating opportunities for ISM actions in its Macomia, Mocímboa da Praia, and Muidumbe heartlands.
Key developments
2 July | President Daniel Chapo announces that the Northern Operational Theater command of the Defense and Security Forces is moving from Pemba to Mocímboa da Praia. The Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) headquarters is in Mocímboa da Praia, so this move should facilitate better coordination with the RDF.
8 July | The Central Bank of Mozambique releases its Financial Stability Report 2025, identifying “military instability” in Cabo Delgado as undermining national financial stability by denting investor confidence and restricting the flow of goods in the province.
9 July | During a visit to Maputo, Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov says Russia is willing to provide counter-insurgency support to Mozambique. While unlikely, considering Wagner Group’s failure in 2019, Russia is a potential supplier of lethal equipment to Mozambique, something western partners have resisted.
10 July | Mozambique LNG has announced a call for tenders for upgrading electronic surveillance of the project’s perimeter fence. The call for tenders indicates that the project is not moving from the fortress model that allowed the project to resume.
18 July | A Rapid Intervention Unit police officer shoots a man dead while arresting him in Maputo province’s Manhiça district.
State forces launch operations in Catupa, but ISM’s main base remains secure
State forces made a concerted push to contest ISM’s control of Catupa forest on two fronts in July. Since mid-June, there have been repeated clashes around the Defense Armed Forces of Mozambique (FADM) outposts at Catupa and Namabo, and an RDF operation close to Cogolo (see map below). These account for approximately half of all engagements between the forces since mid-2025. ISM claims that on 5 July they successfully countered a FADM attempt to recapture the Catupa outpost, which FADM had abandoned in January, and that they pushed FADM from Namabo the same day. Namabo, located less than 4 kilometers east of the N380, was most recently taken by ISM on 22 June, then recaptured by FADM and the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) on 28 June. Since mid-June, there have been at least 64 fatalities in these operations. Fighting between 5 and 12 July alone led to conservative estimates of at least 20 fatalities, though some local sources have given estimates of up to 60 fatalities among state forces.
To the east, on 23 July, the RDF attacked an ISM position close to Cogolo village, approximately 10 km from the coast. The RDF shelled and raided the position, killing at least five ISM militants. ISM claims to have attacked an RDF position in the area the following day, and to have killed six RDF soldiers and one informant, damaged a vehicle, and taken weapons. Such positions, known as ribats, are often temporary, and established to protect the main base.
FADM and RDF operations prompted some ISM militants to move north in smaller groups. They clashed with a FADM patrol in southern Mocímboa da Praia district on 4 July, and on 23 July with an RDF patrol at Miangelewa in Muidumbe district on the N380.
Since international intervention in 2021, all attempts to dislodge ISM from its Catupa stronghold have been unsuccessful. These latest efforts, particularly those by the RDF at Cogolo, however, demonstrate state forces’ renewed focus on limiting ISM’s influence on the Macomia coast, which has grown in recent years. While the operations have created short-term disruption to ISM, previous operations in Catupa have been short-lived, so we expect ISM to maintain its stronghold in Catupa.
ISM pushes south and west, exposing roadways and mining sites to predatory activity
In response to state forces’ pressure in Catupa, some ISM fighters have moved southward. Initially moving through Quissanga, Mecufi, and Meluco districts they subsequently moved south to Ancuabe and Chiúre districts and west to Montepuez. One group proceeded further south to cross to Eráti district in Nampula province. The group in Montepuez is moving toward Niassa province.
The southward movement had begun by 8 July, when over 30 fighters arrived in Cagembe village in Quissanga. Despite subsequent sightings in the area, they were not disturbed by FADM until 29 July, when the two forces clashed at Ntessa village, about 15 km south of Cagembe.
Informal gold mining sites were targeted in Ancuabe district. At a mining site on 13 July and at Muaja gold mines on 20 July, miners and others were kidnapped. At Muaja, some were held for ransom of up to 60,000 meticais (900 USD), while others were forcibly recruited into ISM, according to a local source.
After the move west into Montepuez, on 26 July they held three vehicles and their passengers for ransom on the R698 linking Montepuez to Mueda. The incident occurred near Nicocue village. According to victims, 389,000 meticais ($6,000) was transferred to the insurgents for at least 10 people, along with three vehicles including a logging truck. The group, numbering as many as 150, moved north after the Nicocue incident toward Niassa province, passing through the Shamba Kubwa mining area on 31 July.
Past behavior suggests that ISM will maintain a presence in the south through August. In that time, ISM will continue to threaten road traffic and mining sites with a view to raising money. FADM will be under pressure to increase escorts on the N1 and the R698 routes in order to keep them open to commercial and humanitarian traffic.
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