Good afternoon. April’s meeting of the ruling Frelimo party’s Central Committee will be a major test of President Daniel Chapo’s control over his party. Chapo is president of Frelimo as well as president of Mozambique, but in the 12 months since he took office, he has hardly given any attention to the former. There were good reasons for that, of course: he has been trying to establish his legitimacy after the disputed elections of October 2024 and deal with the aftermath of the violent protests that followed. But it means that his authority in Frelimo has not been tested much, as he and the party have not had a lot to say to each other.
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For example, Frelimo’s Political Commission is supposed to be a place to discuss and approve policies before they come before the Council of Ministers. It can be used to test out policies and check them for weaknesses. But the commission’s membership dates back to Chapo’s predecessor Filipe Nyusi, and as such, its members do not feel like they have any influence anymore. Former agriculture minister Celso Correia, who was once seen by political observers as Nyusi’s preferred successor and the most powerful commission member, is now sometimes absent from meetings. The statements coming out of the commission meetings recently have been bland and formulaic: congratulating Chapo for his foreign visits and his ribbon-cutting, praising the troops in Cabo Delgado province. There is no sign of real policy discussion. Which is a problem: some more debate could have influenced the shape of two policies that the government rushed out without much consultation, namely the tax on mobile wallet agents and state control of rice and wheat imports. Chapo’s opponents in Frelimo will be looking to exploit the controversy over those policies, as well as over his government’s unimpressive handling of the floods.
