Good afternoon. It looks like the authorities are serious after all about putting opposition politician Venâncio Mondlane on trial (see below). Mondlane has been charged with crimes including incitement to collective disobedience and terrorism, in connection with the protests that took place following the disputed election results of October 2024. During those protests, Mondlane repeatedly and successfully called for peaceful protests by his huge army of loyal supporters; but what the ruling Frelimo party wants to do, with the help of cooperative judges, is to pin the blame on him for the violence and destruction that took place at that time. As a member of the Council of State, he will have to be tried by the Supreme Court.
Business owners will no doubt be apprehensive about whether putting Mondlane on trial is going to provoke further violent protests. This seems unlikely. The judges of the Supreme Court conduct their business in a formal manner; show trials are not in their nature. Besides, the government is unlikely to allow TV cameras into the courtroom, for fear that Mondlane, a charismatic and very effective public speaker, would use TV coverage as a propaganda tool. For the same reason, it is quite likely that the judges will order him not to comment on the trial when he leaves the court each day. (It seems that Mondlane will not be kept in prison during the trial, since if that had been the plan, he would already be there now.)
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The two most obvious questions arising are: why is Mondlane on trial, and what will the verdict be? In answer to the first, the government and Frelimo would like to make Mondlane responsible for all the country’s problems. Mondlane is the biggest, and indeed the only real threat to Frelimo’s iron grip on power. They would like to neutralise him by damaging his reputation and turning public opinion against him. They have already tried to do so, but have not been successful. It seems that Frelimo thinks that having a trial where prosecutors rather than politicians are making arguments against him will be more convincing. All the same, this is a double-edged sword. President Daniel Chapo has in the past described the protests as criminal and talked about “spilling blood” to stop them if necessary. He was apparently dissuaded from making further such comments, because it was not good for his popularity. Mondlane remains hugely popular, more so than any other single politician. Whenever the government attacks him, it risks wounding itself.
