By the Numbers
Data highlights in Cabo Delgado province (8 December 2025 - 11 January 2026 )
At least 17 political violence events (2,298 in total since 1 October 2017)
At least 13 total reported fatalities from political violence (6,418 since 1 October 2017)
At least 3 reported civilian fatalities (2,709 since 1 October 2017)
At least 11 political violence events involving ISM across Mozambique (2,133 since 1 October 2017)
Overview
Political violence in northern Mozambique declined significantly at the end of 2025, with December being the height of the rainy season, which constrains both Islamic State Mozambique (ISM)’s and state forces' mobility and thereby their capacity to undertake operations. Despite this seasonal decline, state forces, both Mozambican and Rwandan, clashed with ISM along the coast and inland, indicating a new seriousness in confronting the group. Violence in Nampula, related to state operations against miners, and in Cabo Delgado’s Metuge district, related to the cholera outbreak, serve as reminders that, away from the conflict, northern Mozambique’s social fabric remains fragile.
Situation summary
Clashes on the coast
ISM remained active on the coast of Macomia, Mocímboa da Praia, and Palma districts over December and January. It is clear that ISM is still able to move along the coast, despite heightened marine patrols by both the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) and the Defense Armed Forces of Mozambique (FADM). The Islamic State (IS) claimed that militants clashed with an RDF naval patrol at Nabaje, 17 kilometers south of Mocímboa da Praia town. According to a source, they had been in the area buying supplies from locals. It is unclear if the ISM fighters were at sea during the clash.
There were skirmishes on the Macomia coast in the days that followed. According to IS, militants clashed with a FADM naval patrol on 23 December near Quiterajo. As in Nabaje, it is not clear if the militants were at sea for the clash. The following day, ISM killed five RDF soldiers in a clash at Cogolo, 20 km further south. IS released images of the soldiers and the weaponry that had been seized. The following day, a large detachment of FADM soldiers arrived by sea at Pangane. According to sources in the area, some of the detachment were unsure of where they were, or what their mission was. Some of the detachment moved to Macomia town, while others reportedly went to Quiterajo. Fighting broke out again on 29 December, when Mucojo residents heard explosions coming from the north toward Cogolo.
On 3 January ISM militants arrived at a place known as Loque, close to Olumbe, on the Palma coast, where they stayed the night, having purchased supplies such as soap, rice, and flour at a nearby market. According to a local source, they did not pay the full price and left the following morning.
ISM return to the N380
On 9 January, ISM struck a military vehicle, said to be RDF by a source at the scene, with an IED on the N380 highway between Chai and Quinto Congresso in Macomia district. It is unclear how badly the vehicle was damaged, or if there were casualties. On the same stretch of road that day, a convoy of commercial vehicles was ambushed. Vehicles were damaged, but there were no reported casualties in the civilian vehicles. In a video clip taken at the scene, gunfire could be heard in the distance. According to a source, fighting, likely with RDF, lasted from 9 a.m. until late afternoon. The military vehicle that was hit was likely acting as an escort to a commercial convoy. Despite the firefight, ISM appeared to have remained in the area. In a 12 January statement, IS claimed to have captured and killed a “militia member,” likely Local Force, on 10 January near Chai. No claim has yet been issued for the IED or attack on the convoy.
Demonstrations erupt in Macomia town after businessman’s arrest
Two days of demonstrations in Macomia town were sparked by the arrest of businessman Ali Maridade on the evening of 9 January. According to one source, he was arrested by officers from the police’s Rapid Intervention Unit and the National Criminal Investigation Service. Maridade is a trader in the town who travels extensively for his business across the province and to Tanzania, according to local sources. On 10 January, demonstrators blocked roads in the town, prompting gunfire from the Defense and Security Forces (FDS) in an attempt to disperse crowds. One police post was set alight in that day’s disturbances. The following day, FDS restored order, again opening fire according to a source. Sources indicate that no civilians were killed in the gunfire on either day. It is not yet known why Maridade was arrested. However, small businessmen active in the province are often suspected by the authorities of being connected to the insurgency in some way.
The incident highlights the continued poor relationship between communities and the FDS in Cabo Delgado. A fortnight before the demonstrations in Macomia, a video clip in circulation showed a man in Mocímboa da Praia complaining of having been beaten by FADM soldiers and claiming that the soldiers stole over 9,000 meticais from him. He also complained about their inability to respond effectively to the insurgency. The incident was confirmed by a source in the town.
Militants move through Mocímboa da Praia, Nangade, and Mueda districts
Small groups of ISM fighters were active in districts north of the Messalo river. IS claimed to have killed one civilian near Diaca in Mocímboa da Praia district on 22 December, and another in Magaia village to the south in Muidumbe district the same day.
In Nangade district, local sources say that on 10 December, ISM attacked Nambedo village, 8 km east of Nangade town. One civilian was injured in the attack. IS itself claimed both the attack and the killing of a civilian near the village two days later.
Local sources think that ISM’s recent presence in Nangade has been driven by the need to escort fellow militants from Tanzania into northern Mozambique. Almost two weeks after the Nambedo attack, around 23 December, militants moved westward toward Namatil in Mueda district, said locally to be close to crossing points from Tanzania. Three days later, ISM militants, likely the same group, set up a roadblock between Mueda and the Negomano border crossing. A number of vehicles were stopped to demand money and other valuables from passengers, including a bus from the King Masai company. By coincidence, in the first week of January, a King Masai bus running from Nampula to Dar es Salaam was stopped in the Tanzanian capital and found to be carrying bales of marijuana.
Local sources have linked recent activity in Nangade district to efforts to bring senior fighters in from Tanzania. ISM’s links with Tanzania are long-standing. Tanzania has made significant efforts for many years to undermine ISM support networks within its borders and maintains a military presence in Mozambique. However, political divisions in the armed forces that emerged after the October elections — which the ruling party’s former Prime Minister Joseph Warioba confirmed in an interview in late December, are likely undermining Tanzania’s ability to support Mozambique’s counter-insurgency efforts.
Beyond the insurgency, cholera and mining spark violence
Incidents in Metuge district in Cabo Delgado and in Nampula province indicate the fragility in communities in northern Mozambique. In Nanlia village in Metuge district on 12 December, people set fire to local officials’ houses, accusing them of spreading the ongoing cholera epidemic that has affected the village. The following week, on 17 December, in Nampula’s Eráti district, citizens also targeted officials’ homes in Megoro village south of Alua, again over suspicions that they were spreading the disease. Such attacks are not unusual and have been recorded in northern Mozambique in 1999, 2001, 2009, 2019, 2020, and more recently in 2023.
Further south in Nampula’s Mogovolas district, police claimed that they had killed seven in a clash with a Naparama militia and Anamola party members around 29 December. This assertion was challenged by local civil society organization Kóxukhuro, which claims that police killed 38 miners in an operation targeting small-scale and artisanal mining in the district. According to the Center for Development and Human Rights, local radio reported that police killed up to 13 miners. It is highly unlikely that members of Anamola, a party led by a Christian pastor, would in some way collaborate with Naparama, which has traditional spiritualist roots.
Focus: ISM-RDF clashes intensify
In spite of ISM’s reduced activity overall, normal in December due to the rains, the turn of the year saw several significant clashes between ISM and the RDF. Both the RDF and FADM struggle to control the Macomia coast, while ISM remains active further inland, particularly in Macomia and Muidumbe districts.
RDF activity in 2025 remained lower than in 2024. However, a concentration of activity in Macomia, Mocímboa da Praia, and Muidumbe districts in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 indicates a new resolve to disable ISM, possibly related to the lifting of force majeure on the TotalEnergies-led liquefied natural gas project in Palma district in October. ISM has not stepped back, though. Despite RDF efforts on the Macomia coast, including the killing of at least 35 ISM militants around 30 November near Cogolo village and the establishment of an RDF combat outpost at Pangane, ISM fighters remained active in the area. On 24 December, the group killed five RDF soldiers at Cogolo. The IED attack on a Rwandan vehicle on the N380 on 9 January came just one month after clashes with ISM further north on the same road on 5 and 6 December, as Rwandan forces responded to an ISM ambush on a commercial convoy. In the past, the RDF has been noticeably reluctant to take on ISM on that road. Both FADM and the RDF still struggle to control the Macomia coast, as seen in FADM’s ill-fated efforts to send reinforcements to the area.
Past conflict trends in Cabo Delgado suggest that the insurgency will slowly increase again as the rains ease. Events in December and January suggest that while the RDF is increasingly willing to take on ISM, the insurgents themselves are not backing down. Low-level conflict, particularly in Macomia, Muidumbe, and Mocímboa da Praia districts, will continue to shape people’s lives in Cabo Delgado in 2026.
Roundup
Capetine warns that an underfunded defense budget makes Mozambique vulnerable
Retired Lieutenant General Bertolino Capetine warned that Mozambique remains vulnerable to insurgency and other security threats due to structural weaknesses in its defense capabilities and insufficient investment in national security. Speaking at the National Inclusive Dialogue on Defense and Security last month, Capetine criticized the low budget allocation for defense. He argued that projected defense spending of around 1% of the national budget by 2029 will leave the state ill-equipped to protect its territory and citizens.
Capetine also said that this underinvestment has resulted in inadequate military equipment and a limited ability to respond to internal and external threats, particularly in Cabo Delgado, where insurgent violence persists. He also highlighted shortcomings in strategic planning, intelligence, maritime defense, and cybersecurity, describing the lack of a coherent, long-term strategy as undermining both national security and investor confidence.
Natural gas revenues lift Mozambique’s sovereign fund value to $116 million
Mozambique's Sovereign Fund has seen its market value rise by nearly 6% since it began operations, reaching $116.41 million US dollars following a $6.1 million capital injection on 6 January 2026, the Bank of Mozambique reported. The fund was initially capitalized in December 2025 with $109.9 million from natural gas revenues, largely from LNG projects in Cabo Delgado. The central bank manages the fund under a legally defined investment framework. The fund aims to save resource revenues for future generations and stabilize the national budget against commodity price volatility. Safeguards include internal controls and independent external audits.
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