Good afternoon. Mozambique’s elephants have returned to the centre of policy debate, following last week’s conference on the “wildlife economy” in Maputo. That is welcome in principle. But some of the claims now circulating risk distorting both the problem and the response.
There is no credible case for elephant overpopulation in Niassa. The most recent census by the Wildlife Conservation Society puts the reserve’s population at 4,471 animals in 2024. Across Africa as a whole, the population is estimated at roughly 450,000, and less than 13,000 in Mozambique as a whole. Against those figures, suggestions that Niassa might host millions of elephants are not serious.
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Nor is the picture on the ground one of simple, escalating conflict between people and wildlife. Human–elephant conflict is real, but it is not intractable. In several parts of the country, mitigation measures have shown tangible results, reducing crop losses and limiting encounters without resorting to lethal means. These experiences point to a practical path forward, grounded in better land-use planning and community engagement.
