After several years of relative calm brought about by foreign military support, northern Mozambique faced a renewed Islamist insurgency in 2025. Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) reveals not only a sharp rise in insurgent attacks but also a significant shift in strategy. In 2025, Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) expanded its reach into more districts, striking remote and vulnerable communities with swift, mobile units. Meanwhile, clashes involving the Mozambican Defense and Armed Forces (FADM) and their Rwandan allies (RDF) remained at the same low level as the previous year, leaving gaps for insurgents to exploit (see chart below).
