Good afternoon. While the rest of the world seems to get only more warlike, a kind of peace has descended on Cabo Delgado province recently. There have not been any major attacks by the Islamic State-backed insurgents recorded in the last two months, with the exception of an insurgent raid on a convoy transporting food near the village of Quinto Congresso in February. The object of that attack was apparently to get hold of food to address a food shortage the insurgents must have had. Of attacks on civilians (which insurgents are happy to do generally) there has been no sign since about January. Kidnappings have also reduced, although they have not ended completely. In the past, a drop in insurgent violence was sometimes attributed to the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. However, the violence has not resumed since Ramadan ended on 18 March. It has been evident across the province, not just in the insurgent heartlands of Mocímboa da Praia and Macomia districts, the two places where the insurgents enjoy local support due to their extensive family ties.
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Instead, when insurgents have been on the move in the last two months, they have shown signs of adopting a renewed emphasis on a “hearts and minds” strategy. On meeting villagers, they have urged them not to be afraid and promised that they have not come to kill them. They have sometimes offered to pay for the food they take, and have talked to locals about Islam. Two days ago in Meluco district, insurgents passed through a mining area without violence (see below). Insurgents often visit areas where informal mining goes on, in order to charge protection money. None of this is unprecedented, to be sure, but it is notable that it comes amid a pause in violence against civilians.
