By the Numbers
Data highlights in Cabo Delgado province (10 - 23 November 2025)
At least 14 political violence events (2,270 in total since 1 October 2017)
At least 12 total reported fatalities from political violence (6,341 since 1 October 2017)
At least 12 reported civilian fatalities (2,690 since 1 October 2017)
At least 14 political violence events involving ISM across Mozambique (2,107 since 1 October 2017)
Situation summary
Counter-insurgency operations continue in Macomia district
Clashes between state forces and ISM have resumed in Macomia district in what appears to be a significant ongoing counter-insurgent operation. The Islamic State (IS) claimed in its weekly newsletter al-Naba that on 10 November, ISM fought off attempts by the Defense Armed Forces of Mozambique (FADM) to recover an outpost at Quiterajo. On 15 November, IS claimed to have injured two Rwandan soldiers in a clash 20 kilometers south, at Cogolo village. Six days later, local sources say another clash occurred at Cogolo, when ISM ambushed Rwandan forces who had uncovered an IED planted by the group. No fatalities were recorded, and according to one source, ISM suffered injuries in the clash. The clashes at Cogolo came after Rwandan forces reportedly established a new outpost at nearby Pangane village on 10 November, adding to their current position at Mucojo. ISM and Rwandan forces also clashed on 16 November at Limala, just 20 km from Quiterajo in southern Mocímboa da Praia district, according to an IS claim.
The clashes at Quiterajo, Cogolo, and Limala may be indicative of wider counter-insurgent operations. Satellite imagery of the area from NASA FIRMS shows extensive fires west of Quiterajo in Catupa forest, for three weeks beginning 4 November. Though not conclusive, evidence of sustained fire events in a known ISM stronghold, confirmed clashes recorded on the coastal periphery, and a strengthened Rwandan presence on the coast strongly suggest an ongoing operation.
An operation in Catupa forest may also explain the westward movement of fighters from eastern Muidumbe district toward the northern end of Montepuez district. Between 11 and 17 November, a small group of fighters thought to have moved from the Lake Nguri area killed at least four civilians as they moved through Muambala, Nampanha, and Mapate villages in southern Muidumbe district, toward the northern end of Montepuez district. In a further attack on Primeiro de Maio village on 20 November, ISM killed four civilians, according to IS.
ISM moves freely in Eráti and Memba districts of Nampula
Zitamar News reports insurgents dressed in military uniforms were first seen on 10 November moving between Cutua in Eráti and Cucune in Memba district. By 21 November, they had undertaken 13 attacks on civilian communities across the two districts and killed at least 21 civilians.
According to a source, ISM was moving in at least three groups. Militants first hit Pavala and Sirissa villages on 10 November, before moving south to attack Nhage and Nahavara villages on 13 November, almost 60 km south of the Lúrio river dividing Nampula and Cabo Delgado provinces. Over the next eight days, attacks across the two districts prompted over 66,000 people to flee Memba for shelter in Eráti district, primarily in Alua town. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the numbers of people displaced within Memba district have yet to be properly assessed, but thousands have fled to Memba district headquarters, as well as to Lúrio, Chipene, Mazua, Cava, Tropene, and Miaja towns. OCHA also reports up to four trucks of people arriving in the port town of Nacala, further south.
The governor of Nampula province, Mariamo Abdula, reportedly told media on 24 November that military operations were ongoing and successful. The only evidence of any state forces engagement is a report in al-Naba of a clash with a FADM foot patrol on 12 November. The report, which included photographic evidence of seized equipment, did not specify if the attack was in Eráti or Memba district.
Focus: What draws ISM to Nampula?
ISM activity in Nampula province reached its highest point on record in November with 16 events in the first three weeks of the month, and the highest monthly fatality rate since the insurgency began. November is the third consecutive month in which ISM has been active in northern Nampula, marking it the most sustained activity in the province since the insurgency began. The insurgents' activity in November has been characterized by the rapid movement of at least three groups of fighters, civilian targeting, and property destruction, prompting large-scale displacement. The campaign has also been notable for the number of incident claims, 10, released by IS.
ISM’s repeated incursions suggest that the group may be looking to strengthen its existing connections in the area, possibly with a view to bolstering supply routes for recruits and goods. ACLED first records insurgent activity in Memba in June 2022, and in Eráti in August 2022. However, there is evidence that the group has significant ties to the province. Researchers Salvador Forquilha and João Pereira present evidence of the existence of recruitment networks in the province since at least 2016. They also describe long-standing connections between fishing communities in Nampula with counterparts in Quissanga, Ibo, and Macomia, further north in Cabo Delgado. Such established relationships can provide entry points for developing supply lines and targeting new recruits.
The violence of their current sojourn may, counterintuitively, be an indicator that ISM wishes to strengthen its position in an area where it has strong connections. Mass displacement and disruption of civic administration, particularly in the absence of an effective military response, create an environment in which the group can operate with some freedom.
Roundup
ExxonMobil lifts force majeure on Rovuma LNG
ExxonMobil has lifted force majeure on its Rovuma liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, imposed after ISM attacked Palma town in 2021. The decision paves the way for a final investment decision, expected in 2026. The move follows TotalEnergies’ recent restart of work on the adjacent Mozambique LNG project. First production for both the Exxon-led Rovuma LNG development and TotalEnergies’ project is expected in the early 2030s.
TotalEnergies accused of complicity in “container massacre” in Mozambique
The European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights (ECCHR) filed a criminal complaint in France on 17 November accusing TotalEnergies of complicity in war crimes, torture, and enforced disappearances in Mozambique. The complaint, submitted to France’s National Anti-Terrorism Prosecutor, centers on a 2021 incident known as the “container massacre,” in which Mozambican armed forces allegedly detained, tortured, and killed civilians at TotalEnergies’ gas site.
ECCHR argues that TotalEnergies knowingly supported a military unit with a documented history of human rights abuses by providing housing, food, equipment, and bonuses to soldiers. According to ECCHR, internal documents obtained through freedom-of-information requests show the company was aware of violent abuses by the forces it relied on for security. ECCHR says that TotalEnergies and its executives should be held accountable for enabling these crimes.
Mozambique grants extension to TotalEnergies' LNG project
The Mozambican government has granted TotalEnergies an additional 4 1/2-year extension to the Cabo Delgado LNG project concession, corresponding to the period during which it was suspended under a force majeure declaration due to insurgent attacks between April 2021 and October 2025. TotalEnergies had requested a 10-year extension, citing losses of 4.5 billion US dollars. However, the government opted to restore only the actual period of suspension and commissioned an independent audit to verify all related expenses.
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