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Insurgents are down but not out

Outgoing president Filipe Nyusi could not resist talking about the insurgency in his farewell speech. As usual, he was wrong

Daniel Chapo attended a prayer with religious leaders the day after being sworn in as president in Maputo.

Good afternoon. In his last speech as Mozambican president, Filipe Nyusi claimed that the Islamic State-backed insurgency in Cabo Delgado province had been “dismantled”. It is a reasonable time to assess his record in dealing with the insurgency which has been around for most of his time as president: it erupted in October 2017, a little under three years after Nyusi was first inaugurated.

Typically for Nyusi, he did not provide any details to back up his claim, or the claim that insurgents were leaving the country. All through the insurgency, the national government has been secretive about insurgent activity and about the operations of the security forces, and Nyusi’s occasional, vague statements on the subject have often been the sum total of the official information.

It is well known that the Mozambican armed forces struggled to contain the insurgency when they faced it alone for the first four years. They did not have the training, equipment, morale or culture to fight the insurgents or to avoid trampling on the human rights of the civilians they were supposed to protect. As former defence minister, Nyusi ought to have been aware of the condition of the forces in his portfolio, but he had not been a good minister, and if he did know, he did not act — not even when insurgents captured the strategic town of Mocímboa da Praia repeatedly in 2020, which ended in them holding it for a year. 

It was only the insurgents’ raid on the town of Palma, close to TotalEnergies’ planned gas project, in March 2021 that forced the government to look for assistance from foreign armed forces, rather than the mercenaries that had proved ineffective so far. In fairness to Nyusi, it was the executive bodies in his ruling Frelimo party who were most strongly opposed to allowing foreign troops into the country. But still, he could have taken more of an initiative on the point.

Nyusi’s decision to invite Rwanda to send troops into Cabo Delgado made a big difference to fighting the insurgency, even if part of the reason they were invited was political, to counter the power of the regional forces from the Southern African Development Community which he had reluctantly accepted. The Rwandan forces have been able to contain the insurgents to some extent, and the latter have not been able to capture any more major towns since Palma (although they did briefly hold the town of Mucojo last year).

Nyusi can also be credited with overseeing the reform of the chain of command in Cabo Delgado, which was previously unclear. In the early years of the insurgency, the police and interior ministry seemed to be in overall command, reflecting the government's desire to treat it as a police matter in order to play down the threat to national security. Only the changes that came with the appointment of Cristóvão Chume as defence minister and Joaquim Mangrasse as chief of the armed forces general staff in 2021 made it clear that the defence ministry was in control. 

Fast forward to 2025, however, and Nyusi’s assertion that the insurgency is in pieces is, as usual for him, a little too optimistic. It is true that the insurgents have not attacked security forces recently, but we cannot be sure that that is because they are too weak to do so. They are not too feeble to hold on to their bases in places like the districts of Macomia, Quissanga and Muidumbe, resisting Rwandan attempts to dislodge them. They have also been able to maintain a menacing presence along the N380 road, the only highway linking the northern districts of Cabo Delgado to the south and the rest of the country.

There were high hopes that the Rwandan-led offensive in the middle of last year would sweep the insurgents out of much of their heartland, but they failed to do so: the Rwandan forces have not even been able to keep the coast of Macomia clear of insurgents, which means that they can continue to receive supplies through there. Whatever the reasons, this all falls well short of expectations, and it gives the lie to the idea that the insurgents are a spent force.

Nyusi’s triumphalist speech therefore came too soon. Even if the insurgents are weaker than they once were, they still seem to be able to hold out against the (probably much larger) security forces sent against them. Like Islamic State globally, they are down but not out, and it is foolish to regard them as finished. It now falls to Nyusi’s successor Daniel Chapo to deal with both the insurgent threat and with the terrible poverty and inequality in Cabo Delgado that has undoubtedly encouraged locals to join the insurgency. He could start by being more honest in his public statements on the subject than his predecessor.

From the Zitamar Live Blog:

Zitamar Mozambique Live Blog
Former Mozambican finance minister and convicted criminal Manuel Chang is to be sentenced at 11am local time (6pm Mozambican time) tomorrow by a US federal judge in New York City, according to court documents. Chang was convicted in August last year by the court on charges of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering. The charges were related to his role in committing Mozambique to guarantee $2bn in loans for the purchase of offshore security and fishing equipment from Lebanese shipbuilder Privinvest in 2013, as part of a scheme known as the “hidden debts” or “tuna bond” scandal.

Agenda:

  • Today: President Daniel Chapo takes part in an interfaith service of “repentance and reconciliation” in Maputo, under the slogan “pray for Mozambique”
  • Tomorrow: Former finance minister Manuel Chang sentenced after being convicted of financial crimes related to the so-called “hidden debts” scandal, US District Court for the Eastern District of New York, 11am local time
  • Tomorrow: destruction of ballot papers used in 9 October general election

Today’s headlines:

  • Mondlane and Chapo in contact “through a mutual friend” (The New York Times)
  • At least eight people killed on inauguration day (Lusa, VOA)
  • Mondlane promises to announce government measures tomorrow (Lusa)
  • At least five dead after Cyclone Dikeledi hits Nampula (Lusa, VOA, O País)
  • Nyusi says terrorists are “dismantled” in final speech (Zumbo FM, Lusa)
  • One dead and ten missing after mine collapse in Manica (Rádio Moçambique, AIM, Notícias)

Mondlane and Chapo in contact “through a mutual friend” (The New York Times)

Venâncio Mondlane, the former opposition candidate who claims he won the presidential election, has said he has been in touch with the new Mozambican president, Daniel Chapo, without giving many details. According to US newspaper The New York Times, quoted by broadcaster VOA, Mondlane said that the contact was made “through a mutual friend”. He added: “You must give the people something very crucial and something tangible… I don’t know if all the items that are in my proposal will be satisfied or not. But I think that we will begin a platform of dialogue.”

Although it has not been acknowledged before, discreet contacts have been maintained for a while between the government and Mondlane’s camp, including about security arrangements for his return to Maputo last week. Sources say that the conversations will have new drive now that Chapo has been inaugurated as president.

At least eight people killed on inauguration day (Lusa, VOA)

At least eight people died yesterday in demonstrations across Mozambique provoked by the disputed election results, as new Mozambican president Daniel Chapo took office, according to a survey carried out by the NGO Plataforma Decide. Three died in Maputo province, three in Nampula and two in the city of Maputo, bringing the total number of deaths since the demonstrations began on 21 October to 308, according to Plataforma Decide.

At least in the Maputo metropolitan area, police were determined yesterday to not allow any demonstrators to move into the security perimeter created for the inauguration ceremony. They dispersed any attempt to move across the security barriers not with tear gas but with live ammunition.

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