Good afternoon. Preparations are beginning for Mozambique’s next census in 2027 (see below), something that should bring attention to the country’s growing population. In two years’ time, the National Institute of Statistics (INE) expects the population to have grown to 36m people, an increase of 10m on 2017. By 2050, if projections are correct, the population could be 60m, according to the INE’s projection, and another estimate by the United Nations Population Fund has gone as high as 70m.
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The birth rate remains stubbornly high: according to the INE’s statistical dashboard, the latest figures show an average of 4.9 children being born to each mother. Birth rates in towns and cities have declined, so in the poorer countryside, the figure is likely to be considerably higher. Government attempts to promote family planning are weak, inhibited by objections from religious organisations and the United States government, which has long prohibited any of its aid being used to fund abortions. The logic of peasant families is that they need children to work the fields, but the low productivity of agriculture means that income does not scale with family size, leading to increased poverty.
