Good afternoon. President Daniel Chapo's appearance as guest of honour at Tanzania's Saba Saba trade fair might easily have been dismissed as routine presidential diplomacy. Instead, it reflects one of the more significant shifts in Mozambique's regional relationships over the past five years.
Relations between the two countries were notably strained during the presidency of John Magufuli. Differences over Tanzania's long-running border dispute with Malawi did little to help, while the insurgency in Cabo Delgado exposed frustrations on both sides of the border. Tanzania questioned whether Mozambique was doing enough to contain a conflict that threatened to spill northward. At the same time, many in Dodoma saw little benefit in committing scarce resources to its neighbour's war.
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That began to change under President Samia Suluhu Hassan. Filipe Nyusi invested considerable political capital in rebuilding the relationship, recognising that Tanzania's cooperation would be indispensable if the insurgency were to be contained. Chapo has inherited a partnership that is now far stronger than it was just a few years ago.
Security remains the most obvious reason why that matters. Tanzania has every interest in preventing insurgents from establishing themselves along its southern frontier, while Mozambique benefits from showing that regional support in Cabo Delgado extends beyond Rwanda alone. A broader coalition strengthens both the military effort and its political legitimacy.
